This morning the Voice of America (VOA) website featured an article on tomorrow’s referendum in Turkey, “Analysis: Turkey Faces Lose-Lose Choice in Referendum”:
NEC-SC highly recommends reading the article, not least because it reflects and reinforces the points we made on the same subject in our posts of 14 APR 17 and 31 JAN 17:
It is our view that the condition of the Turkish Republic is terminal and that the outcome of the 16 APR 17 referendum, whatever it may be, will not salvage the nation’s fortunes and may even hasten its demise. Turkey will not recover from this attack on its internal structures by Turkish political groups for at least a decade. As evidenced by the VOA’s article, this view appears to be gaining adherents among Middle East policy analysists and pundits. And with good reason.
The results of the referendum will be fully known by Monday. NEC is on the fence as to how the vote will break (i.e., for or against Erdogan’s proposed changes to the Turkish constitution); it’s too close to call. But we believe in any case that will profoundly effect the course of events both in the region an globally, and that when all the smoke and dust clears the Middle East will be a geopolitically a new formulation from what it is now.